Incidence and Prevalence of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia in the 7-County Region Around Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota

Background: Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is one of the most common leukemias in the United States (US), with an estimated incidence of 20,700 cases in 2024. Population-based studies conducted in Olmsted County (OC), Minnesota, reported an increase in CLL incidence over a 55-year period (1935 through 1989), which was attributed to increased detection of early-stage cases in individuals over age 50. In an updated study from 2000 to 2010 in OC, we reported no further increase in the incidence of CLL using the 2008 International Workshop on CLL (IWCLL 2008) guidelines. Additionally, when we compared the 1996 National Cancer Institute Working Group (NCI-WG 96) criteria with the IWCLL 2008 guidelines incorporating the monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis designation, we found that the use of the IWCLL 2008 guidelines reduced the overt CLL incidence, modified the distribution of Rai Stages at diagnosis, and shortened the median time to first treatment (TTFT). Over the last two decades, 5-year survival for CLL has increased due to new therapies and improved supportive care. Herein we provide updated data on the incidence, prevalence, and natural progression of CLL in OC and studied similar features in an expanded 6-county region around Mayo Clinic, Rochester.

Methods: We utilized the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP), a population-based medical records linkage system, to identify CLL cases from 2000 to 2020 using International Classification of Diseases codes. We included individuals residing in OC and the expanded 7-county region (REP-7, including OC), for which data became available starting in 2010. CLL cases were included if they met the IWCLL 2008 criteria. All CLL diagnoses were confirmed by manual review of medical records and data on CLL-related factors were collected, including treatment status, prior history of other cancers, and overall survival (OS). Age- and sex-specific incidence rates were derived from REP census data and adjusted to the 2020 US white population. OS analyses were conducted using the Kaplan-Meier method. TTFT was calculated with death as a competing risk. Cox regression was used to evaluate the effect of decade on TTFT and OS among patients in OC.

Results: From 2010-2020, 242 patients were diagnosed with CLL in REP-7, and between 2000-2020, 174 patients were diagnosed in OC. Among the 242 CLL patients in REP-7, the median age at diagnosis was 71 years (range 30-96),158 (65%) were male, 236 (99%) were white, and 74 (31%) had a history of other cancer, with non-melanoma skin cancer being the most common.

After age and sex adjustment to the 2020 US white population, the CLL incidence in REP-7 and OC from 2010 to 2020 was 7.8 and 8.1 per 100,000 individuals, respectively. In OC, the age- and sex-adjusted CLL incidence from 2000 to 2020 was 7.5 per 100,000 individuals, showing no significant trend changes over time.

Among the 242 patients diagnosed with CLL in REP-7 between 2010 and 2020, 102 received treatment with a median TTFT of 9.8 years. In OC from 2000 to 2020, 79 out of 174 patients received treatment with a median TTFT of 9.4 years. When comparing across two decades in OC, the median TTFT was 12.8 years for the period from 2000 to 2009, decreasing to 5.9 years between 2010 and 2020, but was not significantly different after accounting for age and sex.

The median OS for patients diagnosed with CLL in REP-7 from 2010 to 2020 was 11 years. The median OS for patients in OC between 2000 to 2020 was 12.6 years. When comparing across decades in OC, the median OS was 8.9 years for the period from 2000 to 2009, increasing to 13.6 years for those diagnosed between 2010 and 2020, but this trend was not significantly different after accounting for age and sex.

Prevalence data for REP-7 and OC were analyzed as of 01/01/2020. Additionally, prevalence data for OC were available for 01/01/2010. In REP-7, the prevalence of CLL was 97 per 100,000 individuals on 01/01/2020. In OC, the CLL prevalence was 86 per 100,000 individuals on 01/01/2010, and 100 per 100,000 individuals on 01/01/2020.

Conclusions: We observed no substantial increase in the incidence rates of CLL in REP-7 from 2010 to 2020, nor in the 20 years of available data from OC. However, the prevalence of CLL in OC increased by 16% from 2010 to 2020. Additionally, evidence indicated a longer OS among newly diagnosed CLL cases in OC compared to previous decades, suggesting a potential impact of improved therapeutic approaches on OS.

Cerhan:Genentech: Research Funding; Protagonist Therapeutics: Other: SMC; GenMab: Research Funding; BMS: Research Funding. Shanafelt:AbbVie: Research Funding; Genentech: Research Funding; Pharmacyclics LLC, an AbbVie company: Research Funding. Parikh:Pharmacyclics: Consultancy; BeiGene: Consultancy; Novalgen Limited: Consultancy; MingSight: Consultancy; Kite: Consultancy; Amgen: Consultancy; AbbVie: Consultancy; Merck: Consultancy, Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Research Funding; Genentech: Consultancy, Research Funding; AstraZeneca: Consultancy, Research Funding. Kay:Vincerx: Research Funding; Genentech: Research Funding; Sunesis: Research Funding; Celgene: Research Funding; Bristol Meyer Squibb: Research Funding; Acerta Pharma: Research Funding; Dren Bio: Other: data safety monitoring committee; BMS -Celgene: Other: data safety monitoring committee; Agios Pharma: Other: data safety monitoring committee; Pharmacyclics LLC, an AbbVie Company: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Juno Therapeutics: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: data safety monitoring committee and advisory board; Dava Oncology: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Behring: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; BeiGene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; AstraZeneca: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: data safety monitoring committee and advisory board; AbbVie: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding.